Map on Monday: THE HORN OF AFRICA

An Introduction to the Religious, Ethnic, and Geopolitical Makeup of the Horn of Africa

By A. Joseph Lynch

The "Horn of Africa" refers to the far eastern region of Africa which juts out into the Indian Ocean. Although Somalia comprises much of the horn itself - aptly called the Somalian peninsula - the region also includes Eritrea, Djibouti, and Ethiopia.

Christian Ethiopia is by far the region's dominant nation. Not only does it control 60% of the region's land area, Ethiopia is home to roughly 85% of the region's  people (2018 update pop Ethiopia=107mill). Ethiopia's Lake Tana provides the source of the Blue Nile flowing out of Ethiopia's highland core where the capital city of Addis Ababa sits at the foothills of Mt. Entoto. Ethiopia is, however, landlocked and dependent on its neighbors (mostly Djibouti, Kenya, and Somalia) for transportation of its exports. Ethiopia is the continent's greatest supplier of coffee, and also exports agricultural goods and gold. Militarily speaking, Ethiopia has an army of roughly 135,000 men with another 3,000 in air forces. The landlocked nation has no navy. Ethiopia is also the third largest Christian nation in Africa (behind only Nigeria at #1 and the Democratic Republic of Congo) and the ninth largest in the world. Christian roots in Ethiopia run deep as the evangelist St. Matthew brought the faith to Ethiopia in the first century, and Scripture records St. Philip's conversion of the Ethiopian court official (see Acts 8:26-38). Christianity was made the state religion of Ethiopia around the year AD 330, but with the rise of Islam across north Africa in the seventh century, Ethiopia was cut off from its brethren in the north. The three least ethnic groups are the Oromo (35%) Amhara(27%) and Tigray(7%). The more populous Oromo have been lower in the social scale and less dominant politically than the Amhara. That ethnic divide is a frequent cause of violence. In 2007 Orthodox were 43% Protestants 16% and Muslim 33% of population. Much of the Protestant growth has come from replacing animists.

At around fifteen million people (2018) and about one third of the region's land area, Somalia is the second largest country in the Horn of Africa and the region's largest Sunni Muslim country. Where Ethiopia has no coastline, Somalia has the longest coastline in Africa and is situated near the geostrategic choke point of the Bab El-Mandeb strait (which links the Mediterranean-Suez-Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea). Despite its access to the sea and its strategic location, Somalia has been wracked by civil war for decades. While some stability is growing from its southern coastal region around the capital of Mogadishu, Islamic terrorists networks (like Al-Shabab) remain strong in the southern hinterlands while the northern-most region of Somaliland (the former British colony of 4.5 million ) has declared independence and is considered an autonomous region within the country. Dangers from Islamist forces have led to interventions by Christian Ethiopia (2006-2009) and Christian Kenya (2011's Operation Linda Nchi - "Protect the Country.") An excellent historical review by J.Peter Pham.

Eritrea (5mill-2018) is the region's other country with a substantial coastline. Unlike Somalia, however, Eritrea's coast is contained within the Red Sea, oriented toward Saudi Arabia and Yemen; and its southern-most point is located at the northern boundaries of the strategic Strait of Bab El-Mandeb. Eritrea is also torn between Islam and Christianity -- with Christianity holding a slight majority in the nation. Having been incorporated into Ethiopia in the years after World War II, Eritrea fought a 30-year war of independence from Ethiopia ending in 1993. From 1998-2000, Eritrea sparked (and lost) a border war with Ethiopia. With Ethiopia still holding lands in Eritrea, the region's two most populous Christian nations have relatively poor relations with one another. Eritrea also began a short border war with the Islamic nation of Djibouti, and yet holds an observer status in the Arab League. Eritrea, it seems, is thus neither integrated into the Islamic nor Christian worlds. Eritrea's strategic location and large copper, gold, granite, marble, and potash reserves, however, make it a potentially important regional ally to whoever can forge a lasting relationship.

With a population just under one million(2108) and amassing just one percent of the region's land area, Djibouti is the Horn of Africa's smallest country. The former French Somaliland has French and Arabic as official languages but Somali as the most spoken. The port city and capital of Djibouti City provides an important commercial hub at the entrance of the Bab El-Mandeb strait. Although Djibouti is 94% Sunni Muslim and only 6% Christian, it practices religious freedom and acts as a key partner of Christian Ethiopia as 70% of all port activities involve shipments for the landlocked nation. As a member of the Arab League, Djibouti also maintains strategic ties to the wider Sunni-Arab world.

Mapping the Schools of Islamic Law; locating the epicenter of terror

About 1/4 of the world's population practices Islam -- 1.8 billion adherents in 2015. The two major branches of Islam are Sunni (80%) and Shia (20%). The purpose of this map is to help us understand that the primary source of violence in the Islamic world comes from a particular subset of one of its legal schools. That Hanbali school centered in Saudi Arabia is the smallest, strictest, and most literal of the four legal traditions in Sunni Islam. Islam means submission to God. Its legal traditions of law and right practice are unlike the theological disputes that have defined many of the intra-religion divisions in Christianity. Islam is, above all, a practice -- starting with the prescribed recitations to the one God of the five daily prayers.

Sharia is a general word for God's Law. When interviewers ask a Muslim if we should all live under Sharia, he would insult the sovereignty of God to say no. The Christian tradition of natural law is rooted in a similar obligation to obey the Divine Law of God. As Ronald Reagan said, "If we ever forget we are a nation under God we will be nation gone under." In Islam, Sharia is a general term of living under God's law, while fiqh is the interpretation of that Divine law.

There are four major schools of legal tradition (fiqh) in Sunni Islam. The major source of modern violence in Islam is not so much Sunni vs Shia, as one legal school of Sunnis set against the Shia violently and against other Sunnis ideologically. Within Sunni Islam, the Hanafi school is the largest tradition representing about 42% of Sunnis. The map shows their predominance in Turkey, Central Asia and South Asia where 3 of the 4 largest national Muslim populations live. The Shafi'i school has 30% of Sunni Muslims and is the tradition of both Indonesia and the Somalians in the Horn of Africa. The Maliki school (18%) predominates in the countries of northern Africa with the exception of Egypt.

The smallest school of jurisprudence in Sunni Islam is the Hanbali school. This last school to form was organized by the followers of Ahmad ibn Hanbali (780-855 AD). He had led a purification movement against the elasticity of interpretation which he thought was betraying the original teachings and practices of Muhammad. He proposed that approved actions and the law be based more exclusively on the actions and sayings of Muhammad. If the prophet did some action or advised it then that was warrant to do it today. Most interpretations and analogies modifying the actions of believers according to Hanbali were methods of softening the original purity and strength of the Prophet's message. A more general word for a return to the ancestors is salafism (salafi = ancestor). This purification movement was further refined by ibn Taymiyyah (1263-1328) and in more modern times by Muhammad ibn Wahhabi (1707-1792). It was ibn Wahhabi who made the initial pact with Muhammad Saud that continues to this day in the form of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.The discovery of oil in Saudi Arabia and the military alliance of the Saudis and US has financed an aggressive international building program of Wahhabi schools (madrasas) in Muslim countries with other fiqh traditions (esp. Somalia and Pakistan). Saudi oil wealth has also provided for new mosques (and Hanbali interpretations) for Muslims living in western countries. The Saudis are extremely active in funding University chairs and think tanks in the West as well.

The Salafist Wahhabi brand of the Hanbali school targets Shia, Jews, and Christians as their chief enemies. They justify violence since it was  the practice of the early ancestors and therefore a model for practice today. It would be as if a school of Jewish thought today emulated the slaughter by Moses and Aaron of the 3000 Jews worshiping the Golden Calf as a fitting method for dealing with the American Jewish Reform movement. The salafist Hanbalis rule the streets of Saudi Arabia and are the ideology behind Al Qaeda, ISIS, Boko Haram, and Al Shabaab just to name a few. They have exerted a huge influence in Pakistan. The five last attacks on US soil by terrorists have all been by Salafist Sunnis. Their behavior represents a gross deviation from Shia Islam and the three other traditional schools of Sunni Islam (95% of Sunnis). The map is clear: this ideology is centered in Saudi Arabia and controls both Holy Cities. The map shows us also the encircling coalition that can be built to isolate and eradicate this demonic twisting of Islam. This smallest school of law is the richest and most missionary-minded of all the fiqh traditions. For centuries it was shrinking and losing status. But the historical troika of American arms, Saudi oil, and Wahhabi ideology has created a nightmare in the Mideast that spilt over into America on 9/11/2001. The American political, military and intellectual class has never attained  the religious literacy to understand the loyalties that still shape this conflict. The map shows the geostrategic vulnerability of this movement if it is named and isolated. Such an encirclement will not be led by "moderate Muslims." It will take courageous men of God who are willing to submit to His Will and dare look the devil in the eye. They will be men of Sharia, strong Muslims, who set themselves against the lawlessness of the Wahhabi cult. For now the most powerful Christian nation, America, and the only Jewish nation, Israel, are in league with a demonic sect perverting Islam. May we understand this map and work that nations might live in fraternity under His Law.  

David Pence and A Joseph Lynch

     

Religion and Geopolitics Review: Saturday, August 11

By Dr. David Pence and A. Joseph Lynch 

I. POPE FRANCIS AND THE CATHOLIC CHURCH

FROM PHIL LAWLER THEN WITH CATHOLIC WORLD REPORT - A REMINDER OF A LITURGICAL RITE OF DEGRADATION OF A BISHOP: CWR published the text of an old Catholic ritual for the "Degradation of a Bishop" (Degradatio ab ordine pontificali), which can be found in the Roman Pontifical of Pope Benedict XIV.

When he promulgated this ritual in 1862, Pope Benedict obviously felt that it was necessary. He envisioned the possibility that a bishop could disgrace himself so thoroughly, and abuse his office so blatantly, that the Holy See would have no choice but to remove him. Such a bishop would not be allowed to resign quietly "for reasons of health;" he would not be transferred to a titular see in the Sahara; he would not be "promoted" to a meaningless desk job at the Vatican. He would be stripped of his office and - the word is so beautifully expressive - "degraded."

Since CWR first published this ritual, a dozen bishops have been forced to resign, in America and other countries, after accusations of gross sexual misconduct. We have every reason to believe that more such resignations will soon be forthcoming. Isn't it a shame that their resignations were accomplished through impersonal communication - by mail and by fax - rather than with a formal liturgical ceremony?

THE RITE OF DEGRADATION OF A BISHOP

If the degradandus be an archbishop, the degrading prelate removes his pallium, saying: We deprive thee of the rights and privileges of the episcopal dignity, symbolized in this pallium, since thou hast abused them. 

Then, even if the degradandus be a mere bishop, the degrading prelate removes his mitre, saying: We strip thy head of this miter, emblem of the episcopal dignity, since thou hast befouled it by thy ill government. 

Then one of the ministers brings the Book of the Gospel to the degradandus, which the degrading prelate takes from his hands, saying: Give us back the Gospel! Since thou hast spurned the grace of God and made thyself unworthy of the office of preaching, we rightly deprive you of this office. 

Then the degrading prelate removes the ring from the finger of the degradandus, saying: Rightly do we pull off thy ring, the sign of fidelity, since thou hast made bold to rape God's own bride, the Church. 

At this time one of the ministers brings the degradandus a crosier, which the degrading prelate takes from his hands, saying: Thy shepherd's staff we take from thee, that thou shalt be powerless henceforward to exercise that office of correction, which thou hast brought to disarray. 

Then the ministers take off the gloves of the degradandus, and the degrading prelate lightly scrapes thumbs and hands with a knife blade or a shard of glass, saying: We hereby deprive thee, to the extent of our powers, of the grace of spiritual blessing and of sacramental anointing, that thou shouldst forfeit the office of sanctifying and of blessing, and their effects. 

With the same knife blade or shard the degrading prelate lightly scrapes the head of the degradandus, saying: We utterly erase and eradicate the consecration, blessing and anointing bestowed upon thee, and we put thee out of the episcopal order, whence thou returnest unclothed. 

The ministers remove the shoes from the degradandus Thus ends the ceremony.

The wording of the ritual assumes that only one bishop will be shorn of office. But have no fear; the language could easily be adapted to accommodate several degradandi at one time. The US bishops have shown their willingness (one might even say, their unseemly eagerness) to defrock any priest who has been guilty of sexual abuse. But the new American policy does not apply to bishops. The old ritual offers a remedy for this omission. Back in 1862, I wonder what a bishop would have had to do, to find himself called to Rome for degradation? More to the point, what would it take today?

JESUITS AND THE SPIRITUAL DIRECTOR OF MOTHER THERESA'S ORDER: One of the worst and a lot of high ranking Jesuits looking the other way. The fetid sea - Austin Ruse on the gaying of the priesthood.

CARDINAL BURKE AND BISHOP APURON OF GUAM: Something smells very bad in this ambiguous wrist slap and exit from a civic territory that wants to punish this serial homosexual predator. If "conservative Catholics" think we need more prelates like Cardinal Burke, they should look at this very weird story. One of the chief accusers was not allowed to have his lawyer present and thus refused to testify. This intrigue is about high finances and revolting sexual predation. 

BEWARE THE CONSERVATIVE ORTHODOX SIDE OF THE HOMOSEXUAL CLERGY
A word of advice to young conservatives about psychological and practicing homosexuals. The enemies within the gates are not always practitioners of the dark art. There are men who live alone internally-but they live the snide, sarcastic, catty, prissy side of the psychological homosexual. How they love the internet and opportunities to publish statements of dogmatic principles. How they love condemning the acts of married heterosexuals. How they despise open give and take. How they avoid man to man dialogue and debate.   As we look to restore fraternity and patriarchy to the priesthood and to Catholic men throughout the nations, here are four "conservative heroes" whose malformed personalities are more likely to misdirect than lead us:  Cardinal "Gay Ray" (his seminary nickname) Burke; Father Robert Sirico of Acton Institute; John Zulsdorf of Fr. Z blog; Bishop John Nienstedt - arch foe of "gay marriage" in St Paul-Minneapolis Archdiocese. Our only statement at this time is that these men are peculiarly narcissicist and spectacularly unable to initiate and sustain the direct brotherly discussion of the Satanic cult in our midst. It will take a certain set of personalities to break through the homosexual subculture infecting the Apostolic fraternity. These four are not the Galilean fishermen we need.

BISHOP JOHN NIENSTEDT SURFACES AS A REFORMER:
 The bad joke of homosexual clergy playing the orthodox card. 
 Wealthy friends at Napa Institute have been tricked by  predator Nienstedt-the "orthodox bishop" who groomed young male special friends while vociferously opposing gay marriage in Minnesota.   

PUNISHMENT THAT FITS THE  CRIME: A Pope from the past faces Sodomy. He didn't see his era as a time to condemn capital punishment.

THE HORROR IN CHILE
If you are ever tempted to call homosexuality "gay" consider the ring of predators who took over the Chilean priesthood. A journalist reflects-"not just the Anglos."

PART OF THE SOLUTION
The peasants march to Baltimore.  Michael Voris says we will know there is true reform when bishops   a) admit there has been a huge infiltration of clergy by predator and complicit homosexuals; b) effect  many resignations of those in homosexual cult and those who have allowed it.  He is right to emphasize  these as the central requests/demands of the laity. We do not agree with Voris that Bishop Wuerl's suggestion that the American bishops set up  a bishop committee to investigate American bishops is an insulting and bad idea. It is an excellent and necessary reform(see below).

DO NOT INTERRUPT THE CHAIN OF COMMAND: When US military men were being harassed by feminist Senators from New York to appoint  a civilian commission to act on all complaints of sexual harassment in the military, the officers were adamant in their refusal.  The men correctly reminded the ladies trying to set up a National Human Resources Department that a military body must retain a chain of command. If the military leaders are corrupt, they must be removed.  But the corruption of officers cannot lead to the destruction of the chain of command needed to order men into battle. Cardinal Donald Wuerl of Washington DC is at the heart of the American homosexual infiltration of our priesthood. He has been frightened into making a good proposal which we should not oppose because it comes from the mouth of Donna.  A bishops' committee to investigate bishops. Absolutely correct, Cardinal Wuerl.  We need a bishop led inquisition of the bishops.  Be sure you are not on it.
The role of the laity is to keep reporting and telling the truth to insure the right bishops are on this inquisition board and the wrong ones aren't. The problem we face is that of Abraham pleading for Sodom--can we find ten or five or three bishops who are just? The answer to this dilemma is not to make a committee of laymen--it is to effect enough resignations until we have a critical mass of credible bishops. The Church cannot proclaim to the nations the witnessed truth of Christ's resurrection from the dead, the biological truth of the brotherhood of men and fraternity of nations, or the theological truth of the Fatherhood of God... unless we are credible witnesses. Nothing will so enhance the Church' ability to draw all men to the Body of Christ as our demonstrating an ability to root out the corrupting lies of Satan and the gender confusion of the sexual revolution. The Patriarchal Fraternity of the Second Vatican Council must cast out the Satanic spirit of the sixties. 
The investigative committee of the bishops can have a few bishops and a hundred strong laymen on it with PI and police experience. Lay expertise, detective personalities and Episcopal authority--that cooperative division of labor will begin the Inquisition. This optimal use of all our talents respects the chain of command. The head is still the head while the feet and arms do their tasks. An apostolic church by definition exercises a continuous chain of command. The commission will make reports to the bishops and eventually to the Congregation of Bishops and the Pope. They can propose resignations and they will get plenty of them.  Only the Papal office and his assignees can rid of us of men who resist after the truth becomes clear. If Judas does not resign, the Pope will do what Jesus did and wash the traitor out of the brotherhood. 
 Laymen in the media have a huge role in casting a very wide net of witnesses and stories to shed light on the rot in every diocese in our nation. The predators hate the light. Laymen should quit trying to silence Jesuit James Martin and debate him in the open light. We need to hear in public, bishops and priests say "homosexual clergy" "homosexual bishops" and "homosexual chancery network for career advancement." None of this should be done  in Sunday homilies where our kids are present. Call a meeting for adults only downstairs and talk straight. There is huge role for the laity as prophets and truth tellers. But we do not have the authority of a diocesan bishop, or an investigative arm of the National Conference of Bishops, or of the Pope. And we don't want it. We are not students taking over the administration building on campus.  The patriarchal fraternity of a hierarchal all-male priesthood is not the problem. It is the solution.  We are looking for Elliot Ness not Mother Theresa. We are looking for the Men of Galilee to replace a male figure skating team.  God will raise up such men. Most of them will be priests and bishops ordained in the Spirit to carry out their Apostolic mission.  

II. CULTURE OF LIFE, CULTURE OF PROTECTION

GOOD MAN WITH A PERMIT TO CARRY: The kids lived, the shooter was shot.

TOXIC MASCULINITY: A very good looking lady in a short video says that ain't the problem.

DUTERTE AND THE DEATH PENALTY: While Pope Francis bans the death penalty, Duterte of the Philippines understands it's use as a just means of establishing civic authority and protection. He recently threatened summary execution of corrupt police officials - can anyone doubt the efficacy of his plan?

III. AROUND THE WORLD R&G ROUND UP

RUSSIA AND ITALY: Cultural ties that bind - Christian convergence will soon destroy the anti-Russia narrative and Italians are in the forefront.

ETHIOPIA AND ERITREA - PEACE? ETHIOPIA'S NEW PRIME MINISTER ABIY AHMED: Ethiopia is the sixth largest landlocked country in world. Ethiopia's new Muslim and Oromo prime minister is 41 year old Abiy Ahmed. AOA on horn of Africa - start with map and demographics. On ethnic and religious groups in Ethiopia. Peace between Eritrea and Ethiopia? Is Abiy Ahmed Africa's Gorbachev?

AMERICAN LAND USE: An excellent series of maps telling the tale.

A CANADIAN LOOKS AT SOMALILAND: The British northern Somalis charted a very different course than Somalia of the South. Some history.

CANADA AND THE SAUDIS
It is good to see the Kingdom and the increasingly isolated MbS exposed but this fight over female drivers shows the vacuousness of Canadian foreign policy as much as the laws of Wahhabi Islam.  Is the "issue " of female drivers really more pressing than the saudi bombing of Yemen's Shiites?  

WHO'S MORE PATRIOTIC - THE KOCH BROS OR MIDWEST FARMERS? Laura Ingraham recently contrasted the Koch brothers' opposition to Trump's trade policy with American farmers. These hardworking Midwest men have much more to lose in a trade war than the billionaire brothers refusing to support GOP candidates who agree with Trump. The Koch brothers bailed on Trump after the risk of losing pocket change, but when the farmers are asked how long they will support Trump and their nation, one farmer responded: "To the death." Who sounds more patriotic to you?

Religion, Nations, and Geopolitics Review: Saturday December 8

By Dr. David Pence and A. Joseph Lynch

I. POPE FRANCIS AND THE CHURCH

POPE FRANCIS SPEAKS: Homosexuality in the Priesthood - the Pope is speaking. Who will listen and gather round him to impress this as the central impediment to reform? Remember that Cardinal Roger Mahoney used his time at the USCCB conference in Baltimore (November 2018) to push for deeper affectivity among bishops. It is all about affectivity and brotherly love - that is for sure. Pope Francis' answer to homosexual affectivity in the priesthood or religious life? "Not that kind of affection!"  Every manly American bishop and priest should answer the thoroughly corrupt Roger Mahoney the same retort. We need fraternal affectivity, Roger, but NOT YOUR KIND OF AFFECTIVITY.  Christianity is a movement to restore man to the Father by building a public brotherhood of fathers in the Apostolic Church and among the territorial nations. The mission of the Apostles and the duty of bishops today will be the theme of the January retreat of the American bishops. That is exactly what they should be praying about and discussing with each other.
"Rise up o Men of God, 
His kingdom tarries long, 
Bring in the day of brotherhood, 
and end  the night of wrong."

PROMOTERS OF JUSTICE AND LAYMEN DIGGING DEEP: Investigations of the homosexual corruption among Bishops and priests in America is best done by fellow Americans. Bishops interested in reform should appoint promoters of justice who will work with various independent investigators and other promoters to produce serious reports about the corruption in both local presbyteries and national/regional networks. This video by Michael Voris showing the historical roles of John Reardon of Detroit, Joseph Bernadine of Chicago, and Theodore McCarrick of Washington DC is a very good start to the kind of historical understanding that must inform local investigations. This short ten minute video is a prime example of why serious investigations around the world  must be done by local laymen, priests and bishops. The locals know the local graveyards best.

Rome is necessary to laicize and punish but each diocese and conference must prepare the dossiers of the individuals and networks who have to be removed. Local bishops can suspend and shame.  Local juntas of laymen and priests can begin investigations to aid the still unappointed promoters every diocese needs. The promoters of justice and their staffs should watch movies about cleaning out corrupt police departments and national spy agencies finding traitors within. They will be good training films.

MODERNIST REVOLUTIONARIES TURN ON FRANCIS: America Magazine and James Martin misread the pope and then dismiss him because he is not a psychologist. It is time for the conservative Catholic media to circle the pope and AMPLIFY his remarks. For those of us who have never dismissed the Pope, these comments are very consistent with what he has taught in all his major writings on sexual identity as part of the created order. He has always treated gender ideology as an imposition of colonialism and an anti-ecological approach to God's gift of creation. That is not the language of American conservative Catholic capitalists but it is the way our Pope from the South explains what we all know is the fundamental teaching of the Church on sexual order and sexual abominations.

FRANCIS IN THE MIDEAST: Pope Francis will visit UAE in February as the first pope to visit the Arabian peninsula. Fraternity and Brotherhood is the theme.

II. PRESIDENT TRUMP AND AMERICA

PRESIDENT GEORGE H.W. BUSH (1924-2018), RIP: President Bush grew up in a culture when the elites were still nationalists and the sons of the elite were expected to join all the males of the nation in military service. George Bush was a patriot and a statesmen. He and his lifelong friend James Baker brilliantly continued the American Russian peace making foreign policy that led to the reunification of Germany. They were opposed by Margaret Thatcher and the Brits. They were creating a new world order based on peace between the great nations who had been allies in WWII and then enemies during the Cold War.  He had been ambassador to China and was opposed to the "Contain China" crowd. He and Baker were committed to ending the old alignments and making strong relationships with Russia and China. The baby boomers who followed them never understood the new relationships among nation states that was necessary to replace the bipolar world of the West vs Soviet Union/ Communist China bloc.

A generational leader Bill Clinton and a fiscal conservative Texan Russ Perot who warned of "a great sucking noise" ( jobs being lost to Mexico and poorer countries) made Bush a one-term President. We are all the poorer for that. His grandson George Bush wrote this: "Finally, my grandfather was thankful for his God. Gampy once said: "God is good, but his love has a cost: We must be good to one another." It was his faith and his love for others that drove him, that fulfilled him, and that led him to a calling in public life." 
Father and son. Two presidents. Beautiful eulogy by his eldest son.

MORE EULOGIES: "We are here in the House of the Lord..." James Baker eulogy in the Houston church. Historian Jon Meacham eloquent, humorous, patriotic and penetrating opening eulogy. The Catholic biographer knew the heart and soul of his Episcopalian subject. It is striking how different funerals are when we bury a man who prayed and believed. Senator Allan Simpson talk was also very funny and instructive. He ended with a pointed practical instruction by a statesman and a believer. Pat Buchanan on the world George Bush left behind and the baby boomer presidents who sat by President Trump at the funeral.  Gorbachev remembers real Russian collusion. 

PATRIARCHY, CHRISTIANITY, NATIONALISM, PROTECTIVE SEX ROLES-the story of a life. 
 Reba McEntire sang the Our Father. The priest anointed the body in a flag draped coffin. The brown skinned grandchildren said their prayers for the patriarch. Funerals are meant to stop us from the everyday to reflect on the whole. What a gift to us all from President Bush and those who loved him.  

ELIZABETH WARREN - A PROFILE: A very interesting profile of Elizabeth Warren who actually made her way to political office by understanding and talking about the very real debt problem facing young two income families in the US. She became "famous" because of an appearance on the  Dr Phil TV show.  The problem of "family formation" is one that Steve Bannon and Tucker Carlson talk about as well. They should have a friendly discussion with Senator Warren.   This article gave me a very different view of the Oklahoman from Massachusetts.

III. THE NATIONS

FRANCE, CATHOLICS, THE RIGHT, AND THE NATION: A very encouraging article about how deep the French are thinking about the globalist troubles that surround us. There is something brewing in the Church's eldest daughter. American patriots can learn from the French again. From the New York Review of Books Article about the communal Catholic strand in the French Right by Mark Lilla. (The Lilla link leads to his web page and a terrific interview with a very well informed articulate German woman interviewer.) Lilla is America's most articulate liberal defender of the national identity of citizenship over the clientele identities of smaller grievance groups. Listen to the whole interview. At the very end, his discussion of symbols, civic memory, the blood of patriots and a national loyalty of the heart (not just constitutional rationality) is quite missing from the academy and media where he somehow still survives. Here is his own religious biography up to 2005.

From the article on France:

"Continental conservatism going back to the nineteenth century has always rested on an organic conception of society. It sees Europe as a single Christian civilization composed of different nations with distinct languages and customs. These nations are composed of families, which are organisms, too, with differing but complementary roles and duties for mothers, fathers, and children. On this view, the fundamental task of society is to transmit knowledge, morality, and culture to future generations, perpetuating the life of the civilizational organism. It is not to serve an agglomeration of autonomous individuals bearing rights.

Marion Maréchal used to be difficult to place ideologically. She was more socially conservative than the National Front leadership but more neoliberal in economics. That’s changed. In her speech at CPAC she spoke in culture war terms, giving La Manifas (a 300,000 people protest against changing the nature of marriage)  an example of the readiness of young French conservatives to “take back their country.” And she described their aims in the language of social organicism:

"Without the nation, without the family, without the limits of the common good, natural law and collective morality disappear as the reign of egoism continues. Today even children have become merchandise. We hear in public debates that we have the right to order a child from a catalogue, we have the right to rent a woman’s womb…. Is this the freedom that we want? No. We don’t want this atomized world of individuals without gender, without fathers, without mothers, and without nation."

If all French eyes are not on Marion, they should be. Marion is not her grandfather, though within the soap-operatic Le Pen family she defends him. Nor is she her aunt (Marine Le Penn), who is crude and corrupt, and whose efforts to put new lipstick on the family party have failed."

EMERGENCE OF NATIONS: Nations out of Empires. One of the better descriptions of the different nations emerging from WWI. The author describes himself as "a lifelong student of presidents, history, and sports." 

THE YOUNG AUSTRIAN NATIONALIST-POLITICIAN: Sebastian Kurz and Austria. Sebastian Kurtz and Catholicism. Kurz was born in 1986. He is the youngest head of government in the world. He was elected Austrian chancellor in December 2017. Austria has 8.7 million people (1/10 of Germany). 90% speak German but they are a nation of their own. 75% are Catholic. The next largest ethnic group are Turkish. When he was Austrian foreign minister, Kurtz added the duties of "Social Integration" to his office. Like Orban of Hungary, Kurz sees the Christian Europe of Nations as an alternative culture to the European bureaucracy of autonomous individuals. There was a famous movie about an Austrian nationalist who stood against the Anschluss of the Germanic Reich. He sang this love song to Austria just before his family  escaped the oncoming Nazis who were destroying national borders in the name of racial empire.

SAUDIS AND CHINESE IN HORN OF AFRICA: The role of Ethiopia. 105 million people 63% Christian/33% Muslim. The one nation of Africa whose nationhood did not spring from colonialism. The second largest army in Africa. A new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed - openings to democracy may unleash mobs as likely as republics.

SUDANESE IN YEMEN: Saudi Princes get the black guys to kill the Shiites; the role of Sudan in the war on Yemen. 

PRESSURE ON THE SAUDIS: Muhammed bin Salman is now toxic to a longtime Saudi apologist - Lindsey Graham. Since President Trump has embraced MbS, the Democrats are suddenly in lock step against him and the war in Yemen. That is all to the good. The creative nationalism President Trump has brought to American foreign policy is being turned against our participation in wars in Yemen and Afghanistan. Right now there is one Achilles heel and it is our support for MbS and the Saudis. Whatever path it takes to break this alliance so we can look at what really has happened to us over the last 20 years will be well worth it. The Ambassador from Saudi Arabia is not much help in this crisis (Bruce Reidel on The Crown Prince's tough diplomatic task. His brother is not a lot of help here in US.). Senators, Money, and Saudi Laundering. There are long time Saudi apologists turning against the war in Yemen and MbS. That is a good start but not enough. Senators who have not examined the relationship of Saudi Arabia to Salafism and Sunni terrorism  may pose as great foes of MbS. Good enough. But the deeper question is why we support Wahhabi Islam's favorite cover state. This has made our Mideast strategy incoherent for two decades.

ISRAEL AMONG THE NATIONS: New Openings.

SPANISH NATIONALIST PARTY: The strongest  showing yet  for a party dedicated to strong national identity against regional autonomy movements, an end to laws imposing radical feminism, a stricter regulation of immigration, a return of Gibraltar from the Brits, and a celebration of bull fighting and hunting.

INDIA: A civilization for sure, but is it a nation? This article does not address that but it does remind us of the cultural ways the other Asian giant may be a more significant force in the future than the narrow calculations of mercantilists now measure.

GOOGLE FRIENDSHIP: The friendship that made Google huge. A great article about two men, coding, search engines, and why two heads are often better than one.

PRESIDENT JACKSON: Andrew Jackson, standing armies, and citizen militias.

LITTLE WARS TV: The Germans invented wargames in the 19th century to help think though battles and campaigns before they were fought. In 1913 H.G. Wells wrote a book of war game rules, Little Wars, for civilian gentlemen to war game for education and recreation. A modern day group of men, many of whom are veterans, created a very educational YouTube channel, aptly called Little Wars TV, dedicated to teaching history through war games. Here is their short introduction to war games. And in this video, the men recreate the part of the modern day Battle of Fallujah (a battle in which some of the players took part). While giving a serious reflection on their combat and discussing the issue of creating an educational game replaying a battle that living veterans have fought, the channel keeps each battle simulation light-hearted with the losing team suffering some playful humiliation (in the above video they had to eat an MRE from 2004).

Map on Monday: KENYA

Map of Kenya (click here to enlarge)

by A. Joseph Lynch

Physical Ecology: Natural Resources and Physical Geography

At roughly 225,000 square miles, Kenya is slightly smaller than the state of Texas. Kenya is situated in east-central Africa with the equator running laterally across the heart of the nation and the mostly dormant volcano and lake-filled Great Rift Valley dividing its far west from the east. Kenya's capital city of Nairobi is located in the nation's south, placing it in the southern hemisphere. Farther south on the Indian Ocean is Kenya's major port city of Mombasa. The tropical climate on the coast turns into savanna grasslands further inland before becoming more arid in the north and east, particularly around the Chalbi desert. Kenya's west borders Lake Victoria, the largest tropical fresh water lake in the world. Kenya is also home to the continent's second-highest mountain, Mt. Kenya.

Kenya's natural resources includes limestone, soda ash, salt, gemstones, fluorspar, zinc, diatomite, oil, gas, gypsum, wildlife and hydropower. Kenya's economy, however, is dominated by the services industry (61% of GDP) in relation to tourism, while agricultural production ranks second (24% of GDP). Despite being the most industrially developed nation in region, Kenya manufacturing totals only 14% of the nation's GDP.


Communal Loyalties: Ethnicity, Language, and Religion

Kenya may be about the size of Texas, but its population of 45 million is roughly equal to the populations of Texas and New York state combined. Moreover, 73% of Kenya's population are under the age of 30, placing an already populous nation in the middle of a boom. The ethnic population of Kenya is more or less divided among two major groups, the Bantus (who comprise two-thirds of the population) and the Nilotes. Within the two groups are approximately 69 different languages spoken despite the fact that English (due to Kenya being a British colony from 1888-1962) and Swahili are Kenya's official languages.  Kenya is 83% Christian (48% Protestant and 24% Catholic) and 11% Muslim (8% of these are Shiite and 73% are Sunni). As a Christian nation, Kenya soundly rejected the lecturing of President Obama on the topic of homosexuality.


Geopolitics: Political Geography and Foreign Policy

Kenya borders Tanzania to its south, Uganda to its west, South Sudan and Ethiopia to its north, and Somalia to its east.

While Kenya resists the "ideological colonization" of the atheist West, Kenya is geographically situated on the civilizational fault line that divides Africa's Islamic north from its Christianizing south. Due to a porous border with Islamic Somalia, Muslim terrorists belonging to Al Shabaab often attack Christian Kenya (recall the 147 Christian Kenyans killed this past April). As a result, Kenya has at times been forced to launch military operations in Somalia (see our past Map on Monday posts regarding African terrorism and the Horn of Africa for more).

Kenya is a founding member of the East African Community with its five member nations consisting of Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi. As 76% of the population in these nations are Christian, it is no wonder that Islamic Sudan's application to the EAC was rejected in December 2011 while Christian South Sudan is considered to be the most likely next member nation. Other nations which may be integrated into the EAC include Malawi (68% Christian), Congo (95% Christian) and Zambia (98% Christian and constitutionally-declared Christian). Although Islamic Somalia seeks integration into the EAC, the decision to allow it entry has been deferred since last February.

Map on Monday: YEMEN

The Physical Ecology, Communal Loyalties, and Geopolitics of Yemen

by David Pence and A. Joseph Lynch

Physical Ecology: Natural Resources and Physical Geography 

Yemen is a small middle-eastern country at the southwestern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, 1500 miles long and 500 miles north to south. Its location at the mouth of the Red Sea's egress into the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea via the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait makes it an important nation geostrategically in the region. Yemen has a hot and humid coastal plain with a young, rugged, and mountainous interior. To the north and east is the "Empty Quarter" of Yemen (Rub' al Khali) where the desert leaves no place for human civilization to prosper -- no water or vegetation, just Bedouin nomads herding camels across the desolate wasteland. Off its coasts, Yemen also controls five islands, some in the Red Sea and others in the Arabian.

Yemen is the poorest nation in the Middle East with few natural resources. It has limited oil and natural gas reserves. Roughly 60% of Yemen's inhabitants live off of agricultural production (25% of the overall Yemeni economy stems from agriculture). Coffee has been produced in Yemen for hundreds of years (in fact, "mocha" coffee is named after Yemen's historic Red Sea trade port town of Mocha just north of the Bab-el-Mandeb strait). Most agricultural production occurs in the Shia-dominant western Yemen. Despite not having any internal waterways or lakes, Yemen's proximity to the ocean gives it access to fish and seafood. Further inland may be found marble and minor deposits of coal, gold, lead, nickel, and copper. Water scarcity is a rising problem for Yemen. The problem stems largely from a lack of natural water reserves above ground, illegal use of aquifers, and the 40% decrease in annual rainfall over the past decade. There is even a looming possibility that Yemen's capital, Sanaa, will run out of water by 2025. 

Communal Loyalties: Ethnicity, Language, and Religion

Yemen is home to roughly 24 million people, 63% of whom are under the age of 25. Yemen is dominantly an Arab nation (and Arabic is Yemen's primary language), though Monsoon trade brings some populations of South Asians and African-Arabs. Yemen is a Muslim country, but one that is divided between Shiites and Sunnis. About 40% of Yemen is comprised of Shiite Mulsims, and most of these live in the northwestern side of the country surrounding the capital of Sanaa (see map at bottom). A major tribe of the Shiites are the Houthi who recently (January 2015) displaced the American-backed Sunni president. They know they cannot run the whole country and have not organized a coup.

Geopolitics: Political Geography and Foreign Policy

Yemen has land borders with two nations on the Arabian Peninsula. Its northern border is with Saudi Arabia (29 million in 2013). Oman (3.6 million) is to its east. Yemen is also located in proximity to the Horn of Africa. Across the Red Sea from Yemen is the split Christian-Muslim country of Eritrea. Djibouti - which is 94% Sunni Muslim - sits astride the western side of the Bab-el-Mandeb. To Yemen's south, across the Gulf of Aden, Somalia (home to the Sunni Muslim terror group, Al-Shabab).

The eastern part of Yemen was called Southern Yemen (see map at right) in the decades it was ruled as a socialist state during the Cold War. That is where Al Qaeda is strongest. Northern Yemen was the western non-Marxist entity. These were united in 1990 but never achieved an integrated national communal identity. Muhammad is said to have told his followers to flee to Yemen as a last refuge because of its mountainous geography.

The reconstitution of Al Qaeda in Yemen by jihadists fleeing Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan is the theme of the best book on the country's last century. Gregory Johnsen, author of The Last Refuge: Yemen, Al Qaeda, and America's war in Arabia, believes Yemen (like Syria and Iraq) is set for a dramatic redrawing of its borders. The same author describes how the recent bombing campaign of Saudi Arabia against the Houthis of Yemen is helping Al Qaeda. The Sunni government of Yemen, in a similar way to the the Saudi monarchical families to their north, usually comes to some arrangement with Sunni Salafist purists like al Qaeda -- don't overthrow us and we will nod approval as you fight Shiites and Americans.

For more information on Yemen, visit its page on the CIA World Facebook. A Oct 2016 update on the bloody war waged by Saudi Arabia against the Shia Houthis.  The US has become implicated in a humanitarian  disaster which is becoming recognized for what it is-- a religious cleansing against Shia by the Wahhabists of Saudi Arabia. This has been a credential building exercise by the present King’s son  Prince Muhammad bin Salman  who is not the crown prince but is moving up in the line  of succession.  He is using this slaughter to prove his militancy to the Salafist clerics who will have some role in approving the next king.

This post originally appeared on Anthropology of Accord on January 26, 2015.

Religion, Nations, and Geopolitical Review: Saturday Feb 9

by A. Joseph Lynch and Dr. David Pence

THE WEEKLY BRIEF

Pope Francis offers Mass on the Arabian peninsula Feb 5.2019 

135,000 of the million Catholics in UAE attend--almost all manual laborers 

The unprecedented public celebration of the Eucharist-the first Papal mass and
 the largest public Christian ritual in UAE history  

I. POPE FRANCIS AND THE CATHOLIC CHURCH

THE POPE IN THE UAE: Bishop welcomes him-this momentous day. Social practices in the UAE like working females in public and freedom of worship for non Muslims show the stark contrast of the Wahhabi UAE and the Wahhabi Saudis. The Qatar Wahhabis who are more like UAE call this deep difference the Wahhabi of the Sea and the Wahhabi of the Sand. (Zenit Catholic News on significance of the day).

The Conference on Human Fraternity also emphasized the importance of national citizenship. The first panel was all female. This shows that any serious discussion of an anthropology of agreement will recognize sexual distinctions in social roles. There was no discussion of integrating women into male roles but about finding the proper contributory role of women. This is truly a discussion of the anthropology of accord. (ed: Politics as fraternity-Latin American thinkers remind us that liberty and equality were accompanied by a third musketeer-fraternity)

The mutual critique of atheistic modernity by Pope Francis and Sheikh Ahmed al-Tayeb, the Grand Imam of Egypt's Al-Azhar, was reminiscent of  Benedict XVI talk at Regensburg.  Human fraternity rests on a theocentric anthropology (The signed document).  This is a radical departure from the Social Darwinism  and atheistic anarchy that underlies the   "foreign policy realism "  of so many Western thinkers.

Muslims and Catholics share this God centered worldview while the Enlightenment West is wedded to individualism & materialism.  Along with this crucial theocentric reconfiguration is the public celebration on the Arabian peninsula of the Sacrifice of the Mass. No big deal to the modernists --just symbolic ritual. But for one million Catholics in the UAE (total population 9 mill) the ability to call down the Spirit and incarnate the Body of Christ to give glory and praise to the Father is what makes life worth living. To be free to worship in the country where they work is like having an oxygen tank for a deep sea diver.  135-180,000 Catholics and 4000 Muslims attended. May God be praised.
The capitalist vs communist paradigm is passing. Theocentric nations and religions must organize international relations before the individualists and materialists who traffic globalism engulf us in more wars without end. Pope Francis has a clear strategy of fraternity as the basis of relations with the two great civilizations the Church has been estranged from-China  and the Muslim world. (Francis unique approach to Muslims.)
A WARNING:This event will not go unanswered by Wahhabi Salafists of the Saudi, al Qaeda, ISIS variety. Remember the great offense that Osama bin Laden was avenging on 911 was the harboring of infidel troops on the Saudi Holy Land. Now the UAE monarch has allowed the high priest of the Crusaders to come in the middle of the Land of Islam and publicly offer the great Trinitarian Tribute of the Mass. The secularists may dismiss this act--salafist jihadists won't.
 

The Catholic Liturgy (this picture not in UAE)

    

                                       

The Muslim Council of Elders

There is an anthropological dimension to Fraternity that Muslims understand far better than the Atheist West. It usually culminates in a council of male elders. The Pope meets in this forum much more readily than Angela Merkel. The Council of Bishops under the Pope at Vatican II and now the regular Synods of Bishops are analogues of the male elders.  A Muslim council of elders is never looking for gender equity but always seeking true communal representation.
The Social Justice that begins with the duty man owes God (religion) is a very different social justice than the ideology beginning and culminating in the autonomous individual. The Catholic-Muslim dialogue-a common word between us and you-- is possible because we both submit to God and order public life around hierarchical male groups.

THE CONVERSION OF AMERICA BY EUCHARISTIC ADORATION: by Fr John Hardin on website Roman Catholic Man by Fr. Richard Heilman of Wisconsin.

II. PRESIDENT TRUMP AND AMERICA

STATE OF THE UNION: President Trump gave a sensational State of the Union followed by his talk at the National Prayer Breakfast quoting FDR's D-Day prayer.  All great American projects should begin in prayer. He began his talk by saying this is an event to praise "the glory of God and the power of prayer." Here is a telling interview with a charismatic pastor who wrote God and President Trump.

AMAZON'S BEZOS, THE WASHINGTON  POST,  EXTORTION AND THE SAUDIS: Breaking the tie of Israel and America to MbS of Saudi Arabia would reorder the Mideast away from Sunni jihadism toward the acknowledgment of national actors - Israel, Iran, Iraq and Syria to start and probably two Yemens - Shiite North and Sunni South. If it takes all this new intrigue to get journalists to focus on the truly malignant force in US politics - Saudi Arabia - then embarrassing pictures of Mr. Bezos are a small price to pay. Most stories so far are a mixture of the tawdry and the usual contorted attempts to "pin it on Trump or at least his evil influence" but there are more interesting angles to be explored.    AMI( National Enquirer) executive David Pecker has real financial ties to the Saudis and published the gaudy monograph of MbS to accompany his last visit to the US. The Saudi role in 911, the prolongation of the Iraq war by targeting Shiites as apostate Muslims, the instigating and arming for civil war in Syria, the arming of al Qaeda in the war against the Shiite Houthis in Yemen and the campaign for war against Iran are all far bigger stories of malignant Saudi behavior than the Khashoggi murder. But apparently it is the Post's coverage of Khashoggi that is making Bezos a target (that is his take).  If this is what it takes to turn the spotlight of American media on the nefarious role that the Saudis have played in shaping American foreign policy  for half a century--it is well worth it. The Washington Post is a talented pool of journalists. If they could break through the hate Trump psychosis, the Saudi story has a lot more history, relevance and content than Russia buying facebook time during elections..( ed: Bezos bought the Washington Post in 2013 for 250 million. Within this linked article is another  link to an interesting interview with him.)

III. A CULTURE OF LIFE IS A CULTURE OF PROTECTION

SUPER BOWL 2019

How many roads must a man walk down before they call him a man?" BobDylan

Los Angeles Cheerleaders add two males to squad in 2018

It's been a long...long time coming but I know a change is gonna come. Sam Cooke

                                                                

Martin Luther King Assassinated during this Memphis Sanitation Workers strike 1968

The Meaning of the Movement He Died For.

THE SUPER BOWL: The 2019 Super Bowl was a defensive struggle in which the best coached and most disciplined team emerged with victory. The young losing coach was incisive and magnanimous in defeat. The winning team spoke of the brotherhood of football and the love and loyalty that animated their efforts. Multiple commercials during the event celebrated female empowerment and social justice brand gender confusion. It was rank propaganda often featuring NFL head Roger Goodell as a Social Justice Warrior. He appears to be running for office. If he thinks he has access to the male vote he should pause. We dummies in the heartland understand how the reality on the field of patriarchal fraternity is exactly the opposite of the fantasy world of his advertisers and the propaganda of his public service announcements. The Christian interracial movement of brotherhood is not the father of the atheist drive to obliterate sexual differences and masculine identity. The ethic of masculine sports was hijacked during commercials but the masculine communal work ethic is still alive and well on the playing field. And while the frenzied emptiness of the half time show matched the commercials, the opening civic liturgy struck a different chord. The twin sisters from Atlanta sang the national prayer that gives meaning to the world of American football in their opening spiritual - "America, America, God shed his grace on thee and crown thy good with brotherhood from sea to shining sea." 

THE REAL STORY OF NATHAN PHILLIPS AND NICK SANDMAN: 15-minute video.

GUIDE TO THE MANOSPHERE: A brief, if somewhat salty, description of the secular men's movements that followed the rise of modern feminism. Three groups are described in this video: MRA's (men's rights activists), MGTOW's (men going their own way), and the Neo-Masculinity Movement. The speaker calls himself Coach Red Pill (the "red pill" is a reference to a pill used in the film The Matrix to wake people up from the illusion of the Matrix to see ugly world in which we really live). We may describe these groups, respectively, as dominated by anger, disengagement, and pagan-hedonism. There's plenty of toxic masculinity to be found here; what is still needed is consecrated masculinity.

IV. THE NATIONS

A DISCUSSION AT BROOKINGS INSTITUTE ON THE GEOPOLITICAL STATE OF THE MIDEAST: The whole discussion. Some selected insights:

NATAN SACHS: So the shorthand, I’d say, is four-plus-two. Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, plus the United States and Russia. And, if we include Egypt, which still wants to be a major player, and in some cases such as Gaza still is, perhaps it’s four-plus-two-plus-one.

On the UAE's outsized role

BRUCE RIEDEL: Perhaps we could change the dynamic to four-plus-two-plus-one-plus-a-half, with the half being Abu Dhabi. I mean that in two ways. One, it is all about Abu Dhabi, it’s not about the UAE. Dubai has strikingly different foreign policy views than Abu Dhabi. Dubai wants to be to Iran what Hong Kong or Singapore are to China. Abu Dhabi has an antagonistic relationship with Iran. And the other reason it’s a half is that as wealthy as Abu Dhabi is, it’s a city-state. And it has all the weaknesses of being a city-state. The Pentagon likes to call it the “Sparta of the Middle East.” They think that is a compliment. I would remind people, Sparta produced nothing, and today is a field in the Peloponnese.

But Abu Dhabi has outsized influence. It now controls more ports in the Horn of Africa and Yemen than any other country. The forces it’s arrayed in Yemen are the real ground forces, not the Saudis anymore. It’s become what Qatar was about 10 years ago when Hamad bin Jassim was the half and conspired to be the whole in influencing the region. Now we really have Mohammed bin Zayed.

JEFFREY FELTMAN: The United Arab Emirates play a very significant role in defining the politics of the Persian Gulf. Their strategic goals are counter-revolution, counter-Muslim Brotherhood, protection of the Emirati government system, and crucially, stability in Saudi Arabia. The United Arab Emirates have become extremely concerned about the stability of Saudi Arabia, see Mohammed bin Salman as the key to Saudi stability, and have invested in his success. The participation of the United Arab Emirates in the Yemen war is largely because of Saudi Arabia. As I understand it, the diplomacy of the Horn of Africa was mostly done by Abu Dhabi, but the ceremony was in Saudi Arabia. This shows the influence of Abu Dhabi but also shows that Abu Dhabi wants to play up the stability and leadership role of Saudi Arabia. It’s worth thinking about the relationship between Mohammed bin Zayed, the crown price of Abu Dhabi, and Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia. The fight with Qatar was born more in Abu Dhabi than in Riyadh, and it was used to help elevate Mohammed bin Salman into his current position perhaps earlier than might have otherwise happened. It became a tool by which Mohammed bin Salman became crown prince because his predecessor Muhammad bin Nayef was accused of being too pro-Qatar, too indulgent of Qatar’s Muslim Brotherhood sympathies. I think Mohammed bin Salman probably feels a certain loyalty to Mohammed bin Zayed over how he became crown prince and why.

Iraq

BRUCE RIEDEL: Let’s not forget about Iraq, which has significant deposits of oil and natural gas, and a population that’s large enough to be significant. If you were to ask, “what is the power that is going to break this four-plus-two-plus-one structure and emerge and become another power?,” it’s almost certainly the Iraqis. They will come back at some point.

US role in Mideast

BRUCE RIEDEL: I am struck by a paradox. America’s military footprint in the Middle East today is more widespread than it’s ever been before. We now have American troops in Turkey, Iraq, Yemen, Jordan, Syria, Israel, Egypt, and every Gulf state. Iran and Lebanon are the only two countries I can think of in the region where is there is no American troop presence. This reinforces a point that Martin made earlier, which is that Americans are tired of it, understandably. We look to be in an ever-growing quagmire with no end in sight, involved in civil wars that no one expects to end anytime soon, and we’re in the crossfire in all of them.

JEffREY FELTMAN: The fight within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) against Qatar is an example of declining U.S. influence. Those of us that worked in the government remember the many times that we would bring together the six GCC countries for various meetings, usually with an anti-Iran focus. And it was clear that there were differences between Doha and Abu Dhabi, and between Doha and Riyadh even then. But somehow we were able to manage this. That no longer seems to be the case. The United States has not been able to help the GCC overcome this ideological difference between the Muslim Brotherhood-Qatar crowd and the anti-Muslim  Brotherhood-UAE-Saudi Arabia crowd.

BRUCE RIEDEL: The Iran example points to another odd thing. Since 1979, no Middle Eastern country has taken oil off the market. Only the United States has taken oil off the market. It’s been American sanctions against Iraq, Libya, and Iran, and now Iran again, that have reduced oil on the market. It isn’t the region that’s a threat to the market. If you look at the historical record of the last quarter century, it’s the United States of America that’s a threat to the market.

Saudi Arabia

BRUCE RIEDEL: I think there are four principal Saudi objectives. The first is to counter Iran. The Saudis see Iran as their principal threat in the region, and they rapidly go from countering Iran to countering Shi’ism. This is rooted deeply in Wahhabi ideology. There’s virtually no difference in their minds between the two.

The second is counter-revolution, and by that I mean countering moves toward democratic political reforms in the region, which Saudi Arabia is adamantly against. Saudi Arabia makes no secret it is an absolute monarchy and has no intention of ever becoming a democratic state. 

The third is counterterrorism. Here there’s a paradox of course. Saudi Arabia is determined to fight terrorist groups like al-Qaida and the Islamic State, which target Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia is also, because of its Wahhabi ideology, often the petri dish in which radical Islamic ideas flourish, particularly in the Muslim communities in Europe. 

The fourth is to counter Israel. Although here I think there are more signs of confusion within the Kingdom than we’ve seen heretofore.

I make two overall comments about this. From the Saudi standpoint, many of these issues overlap. A good example is the intervention in Bahrain in 2011, which was undertaken to counter Iran, counter democratic reforms, counter Shi’ism, and, since anyone who is espousing all of those things must be a terrorist, to counter terrorism as well. They only lacked an Israeli angle. And I’m sure if they tried, they could have found one.

The other thing I would say is that when you look at issue number one—countering Iran—the sorry story for the Saudis is that they’re losing, and losing badly. Lebanon and Syria were essentially lost to the Iranians in the 1980s, and the Syrian civil war has just moved them even further out of the Saudi orbit. Iraq was lost by the disastrous decision of the George W. Bush administration to intervene and then to foolishly hold elections, which guaranteed a Shiite takeover, at least from the Saudi standpoint. Yemen is a more complicated story, but the bottom line there is that the Saudis have gotten themselves into a quagmire that costs them billions of dollars a month, and costs the Iranians, at most, a couple of million dollars a month. If anyone was to look at this as a corporate entity, they would say this is a disastrous decision for you to make. 

Which gets me to my last point. Saudi Arabia may have more aspirations for regional leadership today than it has ever had. Witness that they just signed a peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea in Saudi Arabia, and brought in Djibouti as well. The prime minister of Pakistan made his first foreign visit to Saudi Arabia, and President Trump made his first foreign visit to Saudi Arabia. Yet while the Saudis are definitely very active diplomatically, questions about the stability of the Kingdom are higher now that they’ve been in 50 years. And there is a very serious question about what the line of succession is going to produce, and whether it will be disrupted by some kind of internal political upheaval. It is very fascinating that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has spent the last four months sleeping every night on a yacht off Jeddah in the Red Sea because he doesn’t feel safe sleeping on the ground. 

Let’s turn to Turkey. It seems to me that a central and surely driving concern of Turkish engagement in the Middle East is its internal politics, including the role of President Erdogan and a repositioning of Turkish domestic politics toward Islam. 

KEMAL KIRISCI: First of all, it’s Erdogan’s strategy, not Turkey’s. The easiest way to capture his strategic perspective is reflected by two different hand gestures he frequently employs. From about 2012 to about nine or ten months ago, Erdogan’s strategic perspective on the Middle East was symbolized by the four-finger Rabia salute, denoting solidarity with the Muslim Brotherhood. From this you can deduce the poor relations with Egypt, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, the close relations with Qatar, and Turkey’s ambiguous, confusing policies over Libya. 

But during the run up to the presidential elections in June 2018 he raised his other hand too in a four-finger salute, denoting “one state, one nation, one flag, one language.” This is Turkish nationalism pure and simple. And that helped him win the elections with 52 percent of the vote by receiving a substantial part of the nationalist votes. So his strategic perspective now is a very confusing and conflicting one because voices captured by the nationalist four finger hand sign are openly telling him that he has to build bridges with Bashar Assad and pre-empt the emergence of a Kurdish autonomous entity in northern Syria and ensure the return of at least some of the 3.5 million Syrian refugees. And that a huge economy like Egypt cannot be ignored. And to get on with Israel and the United States. So in a nutshell, I think we’re seeing a tug of war in Turkey’s strategic perspectives between two very separate constituencies that have coalesced under these two hand gestures.

After the accession of King Salman to the Saudi throne, Turkey developed close relations with Muhammad bin Nayef and managed to sustain a collaborative relationship against all odds. However, once Mohammed bin Salman successfully maneuvered himself into the position of crown prince in July 2017, the picture began to change dramatically and the Saudi-Turkish relationship became increasingly strained. This coincided with an escalating crisis between the two sides when Saudi Arabia together with Bahrain, the UAE, and Egypt severed all ties with Qatar and imposed an economic blockade over Qatar’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood and its refusal to terminate its ties with Iran. In response, Turkey sent additional troops to its small military base in Qatar as a deterrent against a possible Saudi military intervention, which would seek the overthrown of Tamim al Thani, the emir of Qatar. Turkey further deepened its ties with Qatar establishing a new food logistic line via Iran, enabling it to withstand the blockade. Yet, what aggravated matters for Erdogan most were Mohammed bin Salman’s policies toward Israel, his willingness to entertain Trump’s Middle East peace plan with Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, his close relationship with Jared Kushner, and his decision to pledge $100 million to help with reconstruction in northeastern parts of Syria controlled by U.S.-backed Syrian Kurds.  The murder of Khashoggi thus became a golden opportunity for Erdogan to embark on an ambitious project and seek a change in the line of succession to the Saudi throne by discrediting the legitimacy of the crown prince. The whole Khashoggi affair has benefitted Erdogan domestically as well as internationally, even though it is not evident that he succeeded in achieving his ambition to see Mohammed bin Salman removed from power. Yet, throughout the saga, Erdogan kept King Salman out of the scandal and showed deference by referring to him as the custodian of the holy mosques. This suggests that for the time being Erdo??an is likely to continue to seek a pragmatic relationship with Saudi Arabia, especially at a time when Turkey is going through economic difficulties and needs Saudi finance and trade. However, the presence of Mohammed bin Salman at the helm of Saudi foreign policy will ensure that both sides remain locked in a major rivalry as far as the future of Middle East geopolitics is concerned.


What are Israel’s strategic objectives in the region? 

NATAN SACHS: I think there are just three strategic interests, and then a fourth outcome of them. The first strategic interest is itself often described as threefold: Iran, Iran, and Iran. This is the Israeli focus on countering Iran and Iranian influence in a variety of different realms. The nuclear realm, which still underlies a lot of what Israel thinks about, and is in some ways the only existential threat that the Israelis, especially Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, identify on the horizon. Countering Hezbollah, Iran’s main proxy, as Suzanne described it, and the main conventional military threat that the Israelis identify—it’s not the Egyptian military or the Syrian military, as in the past--Hezbollah is the one the planners are really concerned about. Israel’s military planners are actively preparing to counter Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal or an attack targeting the Galilee. The third realm of Iranian influence is Syria and Iran’s military presence there. This is another major concern for the Israelis. As a byproduct, Israel has invested in its relationship with Russia, now a very important focal point and an important Israeli interest, as we saw recently in the headlines.

Speaking of Russia

ANGELA STENT: Russia’s return to the Middle East after the withdrawal from the region that followed the Soviet collapse is one of Putin’s major foreign policy achievements. Unlike in Soviet times, Russian policy is pragmatic and non-ideological, which gives it considerable flexibility. Russia has ties with all the major regional players, irrespective of their internal politics. Indeed, Russia is the only major power that talks to the Shiite states, the Sunni states, and to Israel. It has been able to establish cooperative ties with the region’s main protagonists and antagonists: Israel and the Palestinians; Israel and Iran; Iran and Saudi Arabia; Turkey and the Kurds; both Libyan governments; and Hamas and Hezbollah. Putin has taken advantage of the U.S. ambivalence about its future role in the region to re-assert Russia’s influence there. Indeed, Russia has begun to replace the United States as the go-to player in this fractured region. Its intervention in Syria and support for Assad have enabled Putin to achieve one of his major goals—Russia’s return to the global board of directors. Russia is in the Middle East for the long haul. It is seeking to convert its decisive role in Syria—ensuring that Assad prevailed and stayed in power—to a broader role of regional power broker. But there is also a domestic element here. Russia has an ongoing problem with radicalization and jihadism amongst its Muslim population—20 million and growing. The Kremlin viewed the Arab Spring, particularly what happened in Libya, as a dangerous precedent for what could happen elsewhere—including in Russia. Putin has given the figure of 4,000 people who have gone from Russia to fight with ISIS. Russia wants to ensure that these jihadists do not return home and it seeks to minimize the ability of foreign terrorist groups to radicalize Russian citizens.

Since Putin came to power, Russia has developed close ties with two countries that were shunned in the Soviet times—Israel and Saudi Arabia. In the Israeli case, the driving factors are Iran and domestic politics. Netanyahu depends on Russia to restrain Hezbollah’s activities in the Golan Heights and 1.4 million Israeli citizens come from the former Soviet space and retain links with Russia and its neighbors. In the Saudi case, the driving factors are Iran and oil. Like the Israelis, the Saudis seek Russian help in containing Iran. And the two countries are cooperating on restricting oil production to maintain higher prices. Both Israel and Saudi Arabia—like the Trump administration—- hope that Russia will curtail Iran’s role in Syria once the war is over. But that overestimates Russia’s influence over Iran. Russia will remain in Syria once the war is over and is actively seeking Western help in its reconstruction. But Putin has said that Iran will remain in Syria. However, the Russian-Iranian relationship could become more conflictual once the war is over.

QATAR WILL HOST THE WORLD SOCCER FINALS: To warm up they took the Asian Cup against all odds. They won most of their games in Abu Dhabi, UAE where their fans could not come to follow them because of the blockade. The UAE fans during the semifinals were rude and disgraceful throwing shoes at players after they scored points. See discussion above about the different roles Qatar and UAE play in Mideast affairs and also the huge cultural difference between Dubai of the UAE  and Abu Dhabi of the UAE.

A TERRORISM CONFERENCE: Brookings Institute John Allen concludes with a call not to invade Iran because the overwhelming cause of worldwide terrorism is jihadist Sunni. He also implies Syria and other real states should be supported not overthrown if we desire peace. Bruce Reidel showed the destabilizing effect of the Saudi under Muhammad bin Salman.  The think tank conversation is improving.

IN YEMEN: US ARMS SOLD TO SAUDIS ARE IN HANDS OF AL QAEDA AND A FEW ARE WITH HOUTHIS: The arms are in hands of Al Qaeda because they are willing to fight the Shiites so the Saudi Arm Merchants give the guns to the men who will use them.  The Houthis only get US arms when they take them from defeated enemies  in battle. From the beginning of MbS war against Shiite Houthis , the journalists who knew Yemen (see Gregory Johnsen analysis) reported this will only help Al Qaeda.

WHO ARE THE HOUTHIS? UNDERSTANDING YEMEN: Excellent short history by Bruce Reidel.

ABOUT VENEZUELA: The worldwide leftists are stuck in a failing paradigm.

CHINA AND THE TECH WAR;  THE THOUGHT OF XI JINPING: 5G is the new Sputnik. Good explanation of the party state nationalism of Xi Jinping.